Quantum Advancements Necessitate D.C.'s Attention

A Call for Quantum Policy Proposals

Last week, colleagues of mine at FAI spoke on The Frontier about some of the latest breakthroughs in quantum computing and their implications. The advancements of quantum technologies are rapidly transitioning from long-term research projects into deployable applications that impact our economic and strategic environment.

I believe this to be true, which is why last year I co-authored a four-part series with my FAI colleague, Dr. Prineha Narang, which you can read here. But there are a few recent events that illustrate the rapidity of improvements in quantum technologies, which should elicit the attention of researchers, investors, and policymakers to ensure U.S. quantum leadership.

The first examples of this phenomenon is how widely-used cryptography may be under threat far sooner than anticipated. Since February, there have been three announcements from quantum researchers worth examining.

Last week, Google Quantum AI published a whitepaper demonstrating that an optimized implementation of Shor’s algorithm could break the 256-bit Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem. Practically, the operation described could enable a machine to penetrate the cryptographic backbone of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and virtually every major blockchain using fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and under 500,000 physical qubits, roughly a tenfold reduction from previous estimates. Under certain conditions, the attack could execute in approximately nine minutes, within Bitcoin’s average block confirmation window, the time it takes to add a new block to the chain, allowing an attacker to intercept a transaction in progress.

Complementing these findings, researchers from CalTech published a similar result, finding that advances in quantum algorithms and circuit design introduce significant efficiencies and computational improvements that could enable a break of widely used encryption with as few as 10,000 to 26,000 physical qubits. This would represent a step-change from prior estimates in the hundreds of thousands. Researchers working in tandem with the startup Oratomic demonstrated that ultra-efficient error correction using neutral-atom qubits could reduce overhead by more than a hundredfold. Simply, this means creating a fault-tolerant machine capable of running Shor’s algorithm could be operational by the end of the decade.

And earlier this year, Iceberg Quantum unveiled Pinnacle, a fault-tolerant architecture that reduces error-correction overhead by an order of magnitude, demonstrating that breaking RSA-2048 could be achieved with fewer than one hundred thousand physical qubits, not the millions previously assumed. Iceberg is already partnering with PsiQuantum, Diraq, and IonQ, each of which projects building systems at that scale within three to five years. Taken together, the Iceberg, Google, and Caltech results are challenging the assumption that the promises of quantum technologies were still decades away.

The second example are the recent reports that the CIA deployed a classified quantum sensing system known as “Ghost Murmur” to locate a downed American F-15E airman in the mountains of southern Iran. The system, reportedly developed by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, uses advanced quantum sensors to detect the faint electromagnetic signal of a human heartbeat from tens of miles away, then pairs that data with AI software to isolate it from background noise. The pilot’s heartbeat essentially became a transponder in the desert.

These developments share a common lesson: quantum technology is advancing faster than previously assumed. In one case, the technology threatens the cryptographic foundations of the digital economy. In the other, it underlies a life-saving tool on the battlefield. The Genesis Mission, investments from the Department of Commerce, DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, and the National Quantum Initiative re-authorization signal that Washington recognizes the stakes of this technological advancement. But executive orders and benchmarking programs alone are insufficient without a sustained, granular policy architecture to back them up.

FAI’s Quantum Policy Playbook seeks to fill that gap. Submissions will translate strategic ambition into concrete, actionable policy proposals that accelerate American quantum research, harden domestic supply chains, expand the technical workforce, and ensure that the United States doesn’t only invent this technology but manufactures, deploys, and leads with it.

If interested, please submit a proposal no later than April 30, here.